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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will decide who governs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with Americans' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement national Democrats' current model of considered, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani directly. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after footage surfaced suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd